Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
