Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
